Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are down to ‘natural variability’, says study
- Duke University study looked at 1,000 years of temperature records
- It compared it to the most severe emissions scenarios by the IPCC
- Found that natural variability can slow or speed the rate of warming
- These 'climate wiggles' were not properly accounted for in IPCC report
Global warming hasn't happened as fast as expected, according to a new study based on 1,000 years of temperature records.
The research claims that natural variability in surface temperatures over the course of a decade can account for increases and dips in warming rates.
But it adds that these so-called 'climate wiggles' could also, in the future, cause our planet to warm up much faster than anticipated.
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The study compared its results to the most severe emissions scenarios outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Projected temperature change from 2081-2100 by the IPCC are pictured here. The latest study, however, says this climate model may be wrong
The study compared its results to the most severe emissions scenarios outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
'Based on our analysis, a middle-of-the-road warming scenario is more likely, at least for now,' said Patrick Brown, a doctoral student in climatology at Duke University. 'But this could change.'
The Duke-led study says that variability is caused by interactions between the ocean and atmosphere, and other natural factors
They claim these 'wiggles' can slow or speed the rate of warming from decade to decade, and exaggerate or offset the effects of increases in greenhouse gas concentrations.
If not properly explained and accounted for, they may skew the reliability of climate models and lead to over-interpretation of short-term temperature trends.
Summary of projected changes in crop yields in a previous IPCC report. Because 'climate wiggles' were not accounted for, the Duke University researchers say the report may have been an over-interpretation of short-term temperature trends
The research, uses observed data, rather than the more commonly used climate models, to estimate decade-to-decade variability.
'At any given time, we could start warming at a faster rate if greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere increase without any offsetting changes in aerosol concentrations or natural variability,' said Wenhong Li, assistant professor of climate at Duke, who conducted the study with Brown.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3052926/Our-climate-models-WRONG-Global-warming-slowed-recent-changes-natural-variability-says-study.html#ixzz3YKgXOeFo
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